Mohan Guruswamy
July 21, 2003

A recent poll indicates that Mr. Chandrababu Naidu is the most popular Chief Minister in the country. Journalists recently returned from Pakistan say that even in that country he is considered a role model. But on other hand the same poll also suggests that his popularity is waning in Andhra Pradesh. Is it a case of ghar ki murgi dal barabar? Or do the facts support this fall from grace? I have taken AP's performance for comparison with a few representative states to factor comparable size, cultural and geographical diversity and regional affinity. After all little purpose would be served by comparing AP with Bihar or with a city-state like Delhi.

The national per capita income last year was Rs. 15,562. The per capita in AP was Rs.14715, which while better than that of MP (Rs.11, 244), and well behind neighboring Tamil Nadu (Rs.19, 141) and Kerala (Rs.18, 262). Punjab's per capita income (Rs.23, 040) was the highest followed by Maharashtra (Rs.22, 604). The inclusion of Mumbai's exceptionally high per capita income has a definite effect on putting Maharashtra so high in terms of economic performance. But what is surprising is that even HP and WB were better off than AP with Rs. 15,012 and Rs.15, 569 respectively. But the real story here is in the growth rates for the previous decade. AP grew 305% but was well behind TN's 383%, Kerala's 412%, Maharashtra's 307% and WB's 355%. But the good news was that its growth was better than that of Gujarat (294%) and Punjab (282%). The real success story here is that of West Bengal which while laboring under the rigid autocracy of the CPM has managed to jettison its doctrinaire approach to economic problems and has managed to best AP's performance by a good margin. Kerala's investment in human and social development too has paid off, even if its industrial base is thin and its agricultural resources limited. If it has a money order economy, so has AP with over 80,000 in just the USA on H-1/B visas.

While on growth lets take a look at the decadal (91-01) population growths. India grew by 21.3% and crossed the billion mark during the last decade. AP (13.9%) did not do as badly as the whole country but was well behind the two southern stars, TN (11.2%) and Kerala (9.4%). All the other states in our list were closer to the national average than to the southern average with MP (24.3%), Maharashtra (22.6%) and Gujarat (22.5%) quite clearly the laggards. The fears that the "south" is getting smaller may not be unfounded after all?

Now we have a whole bunch of social indices, which show quite clearly that AP is not only well behind TN and Kerala, but also below the national average. The All-India literacy figure is 65.4%. AP's is 61.1%, well below Kerala's 90.9%, TN's 73.5%, HP's 77.1%, Maharashtra's 77.3%, and Gujarat and Punjab, both with 70% each. But the real shocker is that AP is behind even predominantly Adivasi MP that has 64.1% literacy. The reason for this is very clear. The number of students in primary and secondary schools for every 1000 population in MP is 278 while that in AP is just 174. The life expectancy of the average AP male (61.6 years) is less than that of the average Indian's (62.4 years) and considerably behind that of TN's (65.2 years) and Kerala's (70.7 years). Andhra women seem to do slightly well with 63.7 years when the All-India figure is 63.4 years. As usual TN and Kerala are better off with 67.6 years and 75 years respectively. But AP is better off on both counts than Gujarat (61.5 & 62.8 years) and MP (56.8 & 57.2 years). In terms of infant mortality for males and females, AP with 65 per 1000 for males and 56 per 1000 for females is better than the All-India performance of 63 and 64. But it is way behind Kerala, which has achieved a phenomenal 13 and 9 respectively. All other states in our chosen list, with the exception of MP (99 & 101) are much better off than AP. For instance TN has 46 & 43, while Gujarat has 46 & 44 and WB has achieved 54 & 56.

Trade and industry circles, both in India and abroad, have made it quite a habit to clap with joy at the very mention of Chandrababu Naidu. He has picked up all the accolades and awards there are to get from the CII and other trade unions. But sadly the numbers don't match up with the hoopla! The All-India gross per capita industrial output is Rs.8965. AP's is Rs.7707, while TN (Rs.15, 523), Gujarat (Rs.24, 225), Maharashtra (Rs.19, 202) and Punjab (Rs.16, 011) are all way ahead. Even the hill state of HP does better with Rs.8856 while WB (Rs.9430) and Kerala (Rs.7896) are also better off. AP keeps company with MP (Rs.7486). Naturally AP's per capita value addition is also low at Rs.1128 as opposed to the corresponding All-India figure of Rs.1549. Once again neighboring TN scores better with Rs.2517 as do Gujarat (Rs.3952), Maharashtra (Rs.3635), and Punjab (Rs.2327). This even understandable given the relatively higher industrialization and investments, but why is AP behind even HP (Rs.1836) and Kerala (Rs.1162), both states thought of as being considerably less industrially developed?

The picture in terms of industrial investments tells us why this is so. The total number of factories in India is 131,094 while AP accounts for a good 10% of that with 13164 factories. All Indian factories together employ about 6.3 million workers whereas AP employs 770,000 or 12.2% of the total factory employment. On the other hand the total capital invested in AP is Rs.38, 690 crores, which is just 6.8% of the total of Rs.566, 434 crores. In terms of gross output, AP's is Rs.58, 494 crores or 6.5% of the national output of R.897, 598 crores. The value addition in AP is Rs.9110 crores or 5.9% of the All-India value addition of Rs.154, 917 crores. This quite clearly due to the low productivity achieved, as well as the generally low technology level of industry in the state, a far cry from the "clean, green and hitech" goal set out by the CM.

Now for a little salt in the wounds. Tamil Nadu has 20249 factories with an investment of Rs.54, 857 crores and an output of Rs.94, 598 crores. Gujarat does even better in terms of investment and output with Rs.85, 804 crores and Rs.118, 551 crores respectively. Maharashtra is even higher with Rs.104, 691 crores and Rs.181, 333 crores respectively. The total loans sanctioned to AP by the All-India financial institutions for the decade was Rs.46, 581 crores out of the All-India figure of Rs.712, 076 crores. TN got Rs.60, 540 crores while Gujarat got Rs.100, 463 crores and Maharashtra a whopping Rs.170, 284 crores. This investment pattern shows up in the employment levels. The average factory employment per lakh of population in India is 1202, while AP's is 1206. TN (1720), Kerala (1258), Gujarat (1739), HP (1447), Maharashtra (1342) and Punjab (1870) are clearly doing better while AP has WB (1208) for good company and can take comfort that it is faring better than MP (1027).

All this shows up in AP's standard of living. The per capita domestic electricity consumption is a low 76.8 kWh while TN Nadu (97.0), Kerala (144.3), HP (89.5), Gujarat (83.8), Maharashtra (113.1) and Punjab (161.3) are well ahead, but AP can be happy with its performance when compared to WB (57.3) and MP (47.0). Another indicator of standard of living is the per capita bank deposit. The All-India figure is Rs.9242, while that of AP (Rs.7178) is lower than Tamil Nadu (Rs.10, 213), Kerala (Rs.14, 198), HP (Rs. 12,073), Gujarat (Rs.10740), Maharashtra (Rs.17, 936), WB (8497), and Punjab (18,067). While AP has a good credit/deposit ratio of 63.6%, Tamil Nadu with 90.6% and Maharashtra with 85.4% are well ahead. Yet another good indicator of the standard of living is the number of motor vehicles per lakh of population. AP has 4166, which is also the All-India average. But TN (5942), Kerala (4800), Gujarat (8765), Maharashtra (5448), Punjab (9880) and even MP (4920) are doing better than AP.